tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post6206893875222488006..comments2024-03-25T17:30:02.150+08:00Comments on 積微錄: 簡單易用的賭波公式池裡漁http://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comBlogger455125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-84602263177244402742021-05-08T16:25:58.457+08:002021-05-08T16:25:58.457+08:00點計的問題,在樓上的留言中已經重重複複講過很多次了。實際操作上不建議這樣逐個加,最方便的做法係pro...點計的問題,在樓上的留言中已經重重複複講過很多次了。實際操作上不建議這樣逐個加,最方便的做法係program咗佢。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-47196453442963758342021-05-08T16:20:33.499+08:002021-05-08T16:20:33.499+08:00跟返幅圖
p(0:0)=0.1738*0.305
p(1:0)=0.3041*0.305
p(0:1...跟返幅圖<br />p(0:0)=0.1738*0.305<br />p(1:0)=0.3041*0.305<br />p(0:1)=0.1738*0.3622<br />.<br />.<br />.<br />逐個計嗮加埋就係。<br />不建議手動逐個計,寫個loop一了百了。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-24462770666169250142021-05-08T14:11:40.495+08:002021-05-08T14:11:40.495+08:00池兄,可唔可以教點計主客各同大細賠率?唔該晒池兄,可唔可以教點計主客各同大細賠率?唔該晒konghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10102469146807137842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-51433149587850265392021-05-08T10:48:36.135+08:002021-05-08T10:48:36.135+08:00同埋主和客,入球總數點計?同埋主和客,入球總數點計?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-11367032390983566302021-05-08T10:44:40.403+08:002021-05-08T10:44:40.403+08:00請問呢個 2.5的細就係將1:0、0:0、0:1、2:0、1:1、0:2的概率加起來係用咩加?如上圖...請問呢個 2.5的細就係將1:0、0:0、0:1、2:0、1:1、0:2的概率加起來係用咩加?如上圖祖記點加?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-79278286304541220892021-04-17T22:02:33.546+08:002021-04-17T22:02:33.546+08:00池兄,可唔可以SEND個excel比我參考?我唔識計.同埋你比個網址全英文唔係好識睇.萬分感激
ht...池兄,可唔可以SEND個excel比我參考?我唔識計.同埋你比個網址全英文唔係好識睇.萬分感激<br />https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/kelly-calculator/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-56393195017064633922021-02-25T23:56:40.503+08:002021-02-25T23:56:40.503+08:00莊家一招「食水深」已經佔儘優勢了。莊家一招「食水深」已經佔儘優勢了。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-65862013717581620732021-02-25T19:38:03.941+08:002021-02-25T19:38:03.941+08:00其實唔好講到馬會(莊家)咁神,佢都只係靠兩三條方程式食糊,只係因為我哋同佢賭無限大先會輸比佢。其實唔好講到馬會(莊家)咁神,佢都只係靠兩三條方程式食糊,只係因為我哋同佢賭無限大先會輸比佢。Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03376193659081448588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-46828762657024035642021-01-07T02:42:19.326+08:002021-01-07T02:42:19.326+08:00用幾多場往績就除幾多。最直接係在Excel用「AVERAGE」。用幾多場往績就除幾多。最直接係在Excel用「AVERAGE」。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-3755676794192508352021-01-07T02:41:25.090+08:002021-01-07T02:41:25.090+08:00見第一張圖,每個比分的probability都可以直接乘出來。
p(0)就是p(0:0)
p(1)=...見第一張圖,每個比分的probability都可以直接乘出來。<br />p(0)就是p(0:0)<br />p(1)=p(1:0)+p(0:1)<br />p(2)=p(2:0)+p(1:1)+p(0:2)<br />所以如果要玩總入球計到p(6)、p(7)會人都癲,最好program咗佢,避免人手計算。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-68690077896943137642021-01-07T01:11:21.918+08:002021-01-07T01:11:21.918+08:00請問 主隊主場得球+客隊客場失球」的平均值,係除幾多?除場數定除2?請問 主隊主場得球+客隊客場失球」的平均值,係除幾多?除場數定除2?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-22564982118821298922021-01-06T23:41:46.456+08:002021-01-06T23:41:46.456+08:00請問p(0)+p(1)+p(2),p係點計出來?請問p(0)+p(1)+p(2),p係點計出來?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-53860189338666040782021-01-06T14:08:44.272+08:002021-01-06T14:08:44.272+08:00probabilityprobability池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-18279907813282634322021-01-06T14:08:00.035+08:002021-01-06T14:08:00.035+08:001.搵返球隊賽前的聯賽往績,搵嗮主隊的主場得球同失球數字,客隊的客場得球同失球數字。主隊實力值就係「...1.搵返球隊賽前的聯賽往績,搵嗮主隊的主場得球同失球數字,客隊的客場得球同失球數字。主隊實力值就係「主隊主場得球+客隊客場失球」的平均值;客隊實力值為「主隊主場失球+客隊客場得球」的平均值。<br /><br />2.見第一張圖。如果mean為1.75,入1球的機率就係POISSON(1,1.75,0)。<br /><br />3.機率0.053,預期賠率就係1/0.053=18.8679....池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-24856837102396103192021-01-06T11:00:19.998+08:002021-01-06T11:00:19.998+08:00P係咩?
P係咩?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-62335435538060491042021-01-06T10:53:35.991+08:002021-01-06T10:53:35.991+08:00池兄,請問如上述祖云例子:1.75和1.1875係點計出來?
POISSON函數係輸入邊幾個數?
0...池兄,請問如上述祖云例子:1.75和1.1875係點計出來?<br />POISSON函數係輸入邊幾個數?<br />0:0的機會率就是0.1738*0.305=0.053,其倒數就是預期賠率18.9倍又戚點計?<br />謝謝konghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10102469146807137842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-78216512932935065762020-05-04T22:32:31.264+08:002020-05-04T22:32:31.264+08:001.入球2.5球比較容易理解,就計算總入球機率時細球為p(0)+p(1)+p(2),當然大球機率就是...1.入球2.5球比較容易理解,就計算總入球機率時細球為p(0)+p(1)+p(2),當然大球機率就是1-p(細球)。<br />2.個別球員實力問題池某沒考慮過,如果要像賭馬一樣通過大量data逐個factor計,恐怕不符文章標題所說的「簡單易用」。<br />3.不太明白時間因素是指哪個時間,如果是指開賽後的即時盤,將「實力指數」乘返球賽剩下的時間比例,就可計出即時的EO。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-58830737887689558622020-05-04T19:23:19.430+08:002020-05-04T19:23:19.430+08:00池兄,想請問下入球大細裹面既分隔位2.5球,你係點去定義 ?
同埋我想問若果要加球員實力同埋時間呢兩...池兄,想請問下入球大細裹面既分隔位2.5球,你係點去定義 ?<br />同埋我想問若果要加球員實力同埋時間呢兩個因素落去係應該用咩distribution去諗會比較好?<br />加上corner 大細會有即時盤,甘樣會有時間呢個factor 影響,甘樣又應該點去include埋佢呢?風口https://www.blogger.com/profile/13223198931433634762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-10073936806238288522019-10-26T21:32:52.414+08:002019-10-26T21:32:52.414+08:00作者已經移除這則留言。一二四https://www.blogger.com/profile/00136037482366474583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-81111775726018527082019-10-05T16:21:57.420+08:002019-10-05T16:21:57.420+08:00馬會JSON版好像只有賠率沒有往績。馬會JSON版好像只有賠率沒有往績。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-53618266037927858032019-10-05T12:43:04.821+08:002019-10-05T12:43:04.821+08:00可以提供個excel template供參考??
希望有埋Json讀取
謝謝可以提供個excel template供參考??<br />希望有埋Json讀取<br />謝謝CFUhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09138552349769623424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-62048467142595488652018-04-05T02:46:26.217+08:002018-04-05T02:46:26.217+08:00直接用作eo就得。
除非計算過程中自己抽了自己水。:)直接用作eo就得。<br />除非計算過程中自己抽了自己水。:)池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-32962429679770861822018-04-05T01:20:58.123+08:002018-04-05T01:20:58.123+08:00請問模擬出來的機會率, 倒數變賠率後還需要再還原抽水前的賠率嗎?請問模擬出來的機會率, 倒數變賠率後還需要再還原抽水前的賠率嗎?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-37712256884084396552018-04-05T00:39:15.659+08:002018-04-05T00:39:15.659+08:00真係唔知。池某冇研究過呢個方向,冇研究故冇發言權也。真係唔知。池某冇研究過呢個方向,冇研究故冇發言權也。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-18645926933767767522018-04-05T00:26:42.840+08:002018-04-05T00:26:42.840+08:00哈哈
如果用poisson, 以池兄所知, 要怎樣做才能加強模型的準確度呢?
例如統計方法一樣, 但...哈哈<br />如果用poisson, 以池兄所知, 要怎樣做才能加強模型的準確度呢?<br />例如統計方法一樣, 但用角球數字去代替入球數字去計算球隊的實力指數, 然後再把 角球實力指數 + 入球實力指數 = 綜合實力指數, 不知是否可行?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com