tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post7601441867638010785..comments2024-03-25T17:30:02.150+08:00Comments on 積微錄: 賭波雙龍閃池裡漁http://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comBlogger74125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-82290000020135752062016-06-28T15:51:38.345+08:002016-06-28T15:51:38.345+08:00感謝Sunny兄的努力,提供如此詳盡的資料。
文中的方法是無法保證100%贏的,所以強調要「技術搭夠...感謝Sunny兄的努力,提供如此詳盡的資料。<br />文中的方法是無法保證100%贏的,所以強調要「技術搭夠」,一定要避開上半場入球少而下半場入球多的球隊。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-21989448483181948602016-06-28T14:32:51.894+08:002016-06-28T14:32:51.894+08:00池兄這篇文章關於買半場入球大細”的“大”與全場“入球大細”的“細”,我想了又想,暫時十分粗略地找了迎...池兄這篇文章關於買半場入球大細”的“大”與全場“入球大細”的“細”,我想了又想,暫時十分粗略地找了迎3個月的比賽結果大概1000千場賽事,發現兩樣都唔中的有20%,兩樣都中的有5%,如果場場都買的話,應該都是輸錢。如果揀來買,只要兩樣都不中的結果低於整體10%,應該可以做到盈利??Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10654900257059996487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-33191170259833830702016-06-13T19:59:32.038+08:002016-06-13T19:59:32.038+08:00不需要計算具體的升跌和機率呀,做rebalance與賭波賭馬不一樣,理解其精神即可,不必真的把a、b...不需要計算具體的升跌和機率呀,做rebalance與賭波賭馬不一樣,理解其精神即可,不必真的把a、b、p、q找出來代進去,實際上也是永遠找不到的,因為股價每一秒都在變,模糊正確即可。<br />如果有辦法知道具體的升跌機率和升跌幅,根本不用這麼麻煩,全倉進出豈不賺得更多?就是因為這些無從得知才做rebalance。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-33849339160168080642016-06-13T19:16:07.773+08:002016-06-13T19:16:07.773+08:00這些基本是明白的。。我是想問如何得知reits 或etf 有少機率升多少。。多少機率下跌多少。。。用...這些基本是明白的。。我是想問如何得知reits 或etf 有少機率升多少。。多少機率下跌多少。。。用2800做例。。現價有多少機率升跌。。升跌幅如何知?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-87681801947202894022016-06-13T13:46:18.040+08:002016-06-13T13:46:18.040+08:00需要理解這種形態的kelly:
f = p/a – q/b
還有這篇:
http://poolshu...需要理解這種形態的kelly:<br />f = p/a – q/b<br />還有這篇:<br />http://poolshunter.blogspot.hk/2015/09/blog-post_4.html<br />池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-85373735549592922402016-06-13T07:40:38.433+08:002016-06-13T07:40:38.433+08:00Kelly 我明白。。但reits 不主動設買入沽出。。。是用股息率決定? 如追求自由兄那樣設定股息...Kelly 我明白。。但reits 不主動設買入沽出。。。是用股息率決定? 如追求自由兄那樣設定股息率為買入沽出訊號?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-33171641750769951572016-06-13T03:36:48.091+08:002016-06-13T03:36:48.091+08:00有些reits。不會計算ev,不會主動設定買入及沽出價位,完全是被動的。操作方法沒有離開這篇文章的內...有些reits。不會計算ev,不會主動設定買入及沽出價位,完全是被動的。操作方法沒有離開這篇文章的內容:<br />http://poolshunter.blogspot.hk/2015/09/blog-post_6.html池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-17087345715892907502016-06-13T03:26:54.342+08:002016-06-13T03:26:54.342+08:00那你會買個股嗎。。你如何計出一隻股票是+ev? 買入及沽出位如何設定??那你會買個股嗎。。你如何計出一隻股票是+ev? 買入及沽出位如何設定??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-61884470910825360722016-06-12T18:47:17.082+08:002016-06-12T18:47:17.082+08:00池某只是被動地增持減持,有機會就頻密交易,沒機會就有排都唔出手,機會是等來的不是主動找的。池某只是被動地增持減持,有機會就頻密交易,沒機會就有排都唔出手,機會是等來的不是主動找的。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-20529442994009941572016-06-12T18:33:07.065+08:002016-06-12T18:33:07.065+08:00池兄在股市是玩2800還是期權。。用甚麼策略找出頻密出手+ev 的機會池兄在股市是玩2800還是期權。。用甚麼策略找出頻密出手+ev 的機會Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-57973359149757736352016-05-30T15:41:59.687+08:002016-05-30T15:41:59.687+08:00懂應該是懂的。但獨家生意冇競爭嘛,水位幾低、選擇幾少,賭仔幾唔滿意,都要焗住玩,吹咩。懂應該是懂的。但獨家生意冇競爭嘛,水位幾低、選擇幾少,賭仔幾唔滿意,都要焗住玩,吹咩。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-80347107713454367892016-05-30T15:33:42.698+08:002016-05-30T15:33:42.698+08:00我認為莊家也要面對風險, 做某些措施保障自己是可以接受
只是水位過低、選擇少、斬腳趾避沙蟲的行為其實...我認為莊家也要面對風險, 做某些措施保障自己是可以接受<br />只是水位過低、選擇少、斬腳趾避沙蟲的行為其實也很愚蠢。<br /><br />外國賭場並沒有將所有的廿一點專業算牌客趕盡殺絕, 就是知道有更多不專業的玩家會輸錢, 足以彌補損失。<br /><br />馬會又懂不懂?神經漢https://www.blogger.com/profile/11591780264960656966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-6960941910538262522016-05-30T15:11:52.395+08:002016-05-30T15:11:52.395+08:00莊家同賭仔之間從來就是不公平,一個願打,一個願捱就玩,唔願捱就唔玩。莊家同賭仔之間從來就是不公平,一個願打,一個願捱就玩,唔願捱就唔玩。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-36075147238697930682016-05-30T14:06:31.845+08:002016-05-30T14:06:31.845+08:00我覺得Hold注5-15秒是可以接受的, 始終莊家都有風險。
如果一條心要買同一選擇, 對我而言, ...我覺得Hold注5-15秒是可以接受的, 始終莊家都有風險。<br />如果一條心要買同一選擇, 對我而言, 拒絕受注後更新的賠率只要不跌得太過份, 我都會照繼續下注神經漢https://www.blogger.com/profile/11591780264960656966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-77017862641899595212016-05-30T13:48:32.613+08:002016-05-30T13:48:32.613+08:00我覺得對莊家也要公平一點,
如果將處境改為"莊家即時接受你的注項,然後提高賠率"...我覺得對莊家也要公平一點,<br /><br />如果將處境改為"莊家即時接受你的注項,然後提高賠率", 你的感覺又如何呢?神經漢https://www.blogger.com/profile/11591780264960656966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-46330621560730366912016-05-30T09:22:12.147+08:002016-05-30T09:22:12.147+08:00除了HOLD, 莊家更拒絕注項,然後降低賠率 !!!除了HOLD, 莊家更拒絕注項,然後降低賠率 !!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-75410597942703491482016-05-28T19:11:07.353+08:002016-05-28T19:11:07.353+08:00是的。非對稱博奕,賭仔總是處於下風。是的。非對稱博奕,賭仔總是處於下風。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-76739728283125311902016-05-28T19:01:10.127+08:002016-05-28T19:01:10.127+08:00即場盤, 莊家而家比以前HOLD你HOLD得更耐, 無肉食, 好難玩.即場盤, 莊家而家比以前HOLD你HOLD得更耐, 無肉食, 好難玩.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03590742026037764530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-11156276851780115062016-05-28T18:26:11.944+08:002016-05-28T18:26:11.944+08:00池某係用馬會資料經自己一個簡單program計算。池某係用馬會資料經自己一個簡單program計算。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-6581692046655496932016-05-28T18:09:20.089+08:002016-05-28T18:09:20.089+08:00想問下咩網可以直接睇到拜仁上半埸入30球,下半場入50球想問下咩網可以直接睇到拜仁上半埸入30球,下半場入50球Actuary HKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13143924437134300733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-68934197070749888082016-05-27T22:35:07.070+08:002016-05-27T22:35:07.070+08:00期權「雙龍閃」梗係向魔術師同森而兄學啦:
http://magician__yang.mysinab...期權「雙龍閃」梗係向魔術師同森而兄學啦:<br />http://magician__yang.mysinablog.com/index.php?op=ViewArticle&articleId=13494217<br /><br />http://sumyeeblog.blogspot.hk/2016/04/blog-post_16.html池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-56602936509489230492016-05-27T19:01:12.414+08:002016-05-27T19:01:12.414+08:00其實想問下池兄點睇期權的双龍閃?小弟想學下,謝謝池兄其實想問下池兄點睇期權的双龍閃?小弟想學下,謝謝池兄royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07962869179795058552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-7201987669212841522016-05-27T00:18:01.625+08:002016-05-27T00:18:01.625+08:00打一個分數或簡單地計所需時間,未必和機率有關。雖然千里之行始於足下,但有一條清晰的思路很重要,多看的...打一個分數或簡單地計所需時間,未必和機率有關。雖然千里之行始於足下,但有一條清晰的思路很重要,多看的確是有幫助的。michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15527294649901649715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-9200169046537727642016-05-26T23:42:22.003+08:002016-05-26T23:42:22.003+08:00這是對的。思而不學則殆。多看些方法和實例有助消除疑惑,就不會心大心細了。這是對的。思而不學則殆。多看些方法和實例有助消除疑惑,就不會心大心細了。池裡漁https://www.blogger.com/profile/11162570051240423987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4243434211633405626.post-41280176400325554072016-05-26T21:38:59.303+08:002016-05-26T21:38:59.303+08:00所以我現在還是先集中在找 STAT 的 notes 看好了,畢竟以卵擊石實在為無謀之舉。所以我現在還是先集中在找 STAT 的 notes 看好了,畢竟以卵擊石實在為無謀之舉。Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09236425597260142897noreply@blogger.com